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January 15, 2008, is 'E-Day' in Barbados. Tomorrow, the 233, 289 citizens and residents of Barbados who are eligible to vote will either give the Owen Arthur-led Barbados Labour Party (BLP) a stamp of approval for its stewardship of the country over the last 14 years, or blow them away on that "wind of change" much touted by David Thompson and his Democratic Labour Party (DLP).

Nomination Day on December 31, 2007 officially launched an intense two weeks of political campaigning that saw both parties having to hold as many as five constituency meetings a night in order to ensure that all their bases were covered across the 30 constituencies of the 166 square mile island. Both parties have traded the traditional accusations of scandal and corruption in the other camp. The BLP upped the ante by accusing the DLP of intending to turn away from Barbados' 30 years of diplomatic relations with China in favour of forging relations with the break-away state of Taiwan in exchange for campaign financing.

More recently, the BLP has accused the Thompson-led party of striking a deal with Trinidadian gambling interests to legalize casino gambling in Barbados. In turn, the DLP has hinged its attacks on the charges that the BLP is in the pocket of big business in Barbados, and that it squandered over $700 million in public funds during its administration due to cost overruns on various projects including the current highway expansion project, the new prison in the south of the island, and the celebrated new Kensington Oval. While staunchly denying the opposing party's accusations, both the BLP and DLP have also stuck to campaign promises surrounding the issues that they see as most affecting the mass of the electorate - namely increasing local landownership, providing more access to affordable housing, and tackling the rising cost of living.

The 2008 Election is in fact a four horse political race this time around. The two traditional parties are being challenged by pan-Africanist David Comissiong and his People's Empowerment Party (PEP); and the two-man line-up of the People's Democratic Congress (PDC) led by small businessman Mark Adamson. However, with the PEP fielding four candidates and the PDC two, it would be impossible for those two fledgling parties to mount any serious claim for the government of Barbados, even in the unlikely event that they unseat the incumbents and out-pull the other challengers in the six constituencies they are contesting.

This election is also being contested by one independent candidate: attorney-at-law Douglas Trotman, who is hoping to unseat BLP incumbent for St Philip South, for University of the West Indies economics lecturer Anthony Wood. Originally, there were two independent candidates in this election but, after paying his deposit the independent campaign of Peter Prescod to win St Michael South East failed to get past Nomination Day on December 31, 2007 after he failed to muster enough support to get even a proposer, a seconder and two witnesses to ratify his nomination.

However, these side players notwithstanding, for the majority of Barbadians, the island has a two-party political system - as evidenced by the results of two recent, but conflicting, polls published within the last three days. An opinion poll prepared by Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) and published last Friday predicted there would be a 9.9 per cent swing against the ruling BLP Government. This, said CADRES director Peter Wickham, could guarantee the DLP at least 20 seats this time around, thus routing the BLP, which held a 24-seat majority up until elections were called. In contrast, a University of the West Indies team of academics is predicting from their poll that the BLP will win the government for an unprecedented fourth term by seizing between 16 and 20 seats.

The Cave Hill Associates Polling Organization (CHAPO) also forecast that the DLP would win between 10 and 14 seats on the day. Surprisingly, both polls gave the PEP one per cent of the popular vote. It is left to be seen whether this will provide enough momentum to make it only the second time in Barbados' political history that a third party has gained a seat in the House of Assembly, after the National Democratic Party gained one in the 1994 election. Whichever way the electorate votes tomorrow, the two polls show significant gains for the DLP, which only managed to hold on to eight seats in the House in 1994 after losing the election to the BLP that year; and then received its hardest political blow ever when it was able to retain only two seats in the 1999 election. However, 2003 marked a turn-around as it regained five seats to capture seven seats over all.